I’ve been following reports of this coronavirus since december. It looked bad. The reports coming out of China foretold that it was much more serious than influenza, but not having any data I didn’t realize it was so infectious. Now that data is starting to come out on a regular basis I’ve decided to keep a personal journal of the virus’ progress.
Disclaimer: I am NOT a medical professional. This blog is based on limited research and observations in my spare time. Most of what I say here is probably wrong. For any authoritative information, please visit cdc.gov and/or Johns Hopkins.
There are too many countries for me to look at all of them. I’ve chosen a subset based on either high infection rates or high populations.
All tables have data using the week ending on Saturday night.
- The US has always wanted to be number one at everything, so it should be no surprise that in just a few weeks, it has overtaken all other countries in confirmed infections. The growth rate is very high at the moment - most likely due to better availability of test kits. But there are still shortages.
- It’s too early to tell but Italy might be making a tiny bit of progress.
- China’s official numbers certainly give the impression their aggressive work has paid off as new confirmed infections have slowed to a trickle.
- Spain is seeing significant growth.
- India looks to be a week behind the US but the data ending 3/21 only triples compared to the previous week. I’m skeptical here and think the number isn’t higher because there isn’t enough testing being done. I’m expecting India’s number to increase at a significant rate in the next few weeks.
- The southeast asian countries and Australia are still reporting very low numbers of confirmed infections. That doesn’t seem exactly right given the number of chinese tourists they would have been receiving the last couple of months.
The infection rate globally is at 704,095. A week ago it was 378,200. So we’ve seen it almost double in 7 days.
- Italy has reported the most deaths and has a mortality rate of 10.8%.
- Spain is not too far behind with 8.2%.
- China is reporting a lower rate of 4%.
- The US rate is 1.7% right now but may spike in the next couple weeks as health facilities become overwhelmed.
- Italy has a lot of people still going through treatment, 70,065 or 75.8% of their confirmed cases. Their number recovered is better than number of deaths but not by much. Hopefully we’ll see their recovered numbers jump as more people make it through the pipeline.
How does COVID-19 stack up against some historical pandemics?
Disclaimer: These are my personal projections and are most likely wrong! Do NOT take any important advice from a random blogger on the Internet. Seek authoritative information from experts at cdc.gov.
Time permitting, I’ll do a followup article next week to see how this virus is progressing. Here are my predictions for what we’ll see at the next update.
- The world confirmed infections will be between 1.5 and 2 million with my guess at probably 1.6.
- Despite how quickly the US infection rate is growing, I think it is still being underreported due to lack of test kit availability. I’ve spoken to several people who have symptoms but are unable to get tested. I think the US confirmed infections will range between 300,000 to 600,000 with my guess at 500,000.
- India is one that I will be watching closely. The second highest population, high population density and limited health care is not a good position to be in. I’m hearing word that they are taking more serious precautions than the US so that’s positive. I think they’ll range between 2,000 to 10,000 confirmed infections with my guess at 3,000.
Well that’s all I can manage to look at today. This took a lot longer than I expected but hopefully I’ll be able to reuse some work for later updates.
Follow the advice of the experts on how to stay safe. Please avoid becoming a statistic on one of these tables - it’ll just add more work for me.